Dubium sapientiae initium.
"We Have Before Us an Ordeal of the Most Grievous Kind"
Today has resulted in blow after blow after blow. I was busy for much of the day an unable to keep a close eye on the news as I have so intently in the past 48 hours. Piece by piece I discovered the most devastating of news: first that Montana had been lost; then Missouri. Next came the horrific shock of the resignation of Mr. Rumsfeld. Today we lost a noble man, a man who came into this administration with high and lofty goals for a military - now defeated by mindless rhetoric? Unseated by the absurd calls of a few radicals? I was not able to believe the news when I had heard it. The replacement, of which I had not heard before, seems to be a man of good credentials, having served six previous presidents and having ample experience. We can only hope that he is a strong conservative with absolutely no 'cut and run' in him.
The final piece of disgusting news was the Democratic win in Virginia, which nailed the coffin of the Republican Revolution of 1994 shut. With this, we now know that the Defeatist Party has taken the helm, much to the celebration of the Muslims.
Mr. Bush shall not go down without a fight though. If he is the man we elected, he will fight them bitterly to the end. We cannot allow any further setbacks in Iraq; any Democratic motions to lessen or disengage our involvement there would effectively turn into a defeat for America.
Livy, after the massive defeat at the Battle of Lake Trasimene by the hand of Hannibal, said that this was announced in Rome by the Praetor: "We have been defeated," he said, "in a great battle." (Livy, History of Rome, Book XXII) And indeed that quote holds true today. We have been defeated. But, like the Romans after Trasimene, we shall fight back.
On the bright side, knowing that the Democrats won't accomplish much but infighting, corruption, and squabbling in the next two years, we have a much better chance of winning the presidency in 2008. And by 08 we shall have learned the lesson that we cannot be apathetic about the polls; we cannot allow the Democrats to make an election a referendum on Iraq (when 95% of they themselves voted for the war in the first place!)
In the next two years we need to watch the news closely. We need to be active politically. And we shall not tolerate this ill-won Democratic majority.
I'll finish with Churchill:
"We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and of suffering. You ask, what is our policy? I can say: It is to wage war, by sea, land and air, with all our might and with all the strength that God can give us; to wage war against a monstrous tyranny, never surpassed in the dark, lamentable catalogue of human crime. That is our policy. You ask, what is our aim?
I can answer in one word: It is victory, victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory, however long and hard the road may be;
for without victory, there is no survival."
A Preliminary Report
At the moment it's twenty after twelve Wednesday morning.
The news is sombre. I returned from a Republican banquet with my head bowed low. On the national level my predictions seem, at this early hour, to have been correct. The Democrats at the moment have a majority in the house by six seats, and are likely to gain a few more before the night is out. The Senate is still held by a Republican majority of 3.
Right now it's all about Virginia. The votes are counted and Webb, the Democratic candidate is up by three thousand votes, despite Allen's having held a lead all night long. I had thought Virginia to be ours, but perhaps I was mistaken. A recount is to be held.
Some good news? All of our local Atlantic County candidates did mostly well. Frank LoBiondo did very well. Our Republican team is strong and committed, and we faced a tough competition this year.
Today however I had a good experience. I was involved in the thick of politics. I sat today at a banquet filled with influential people: Senator Bill Gormley, Egg Harbor Twp Mayor McCullough, the head of the Atlantic County Republican Committee, and a lot of other people. I was present for the vote tallying, and I witnessed the victory of several local candidates. I was there for the feeling of victory; I was also there for the feeling of despair that swept the room when the votes from Pleasantville and Atlantic City were announced: in Pleasantville Menendez swept Kean 352 to 2782.
But tonight we all witnessed a Democracy in action, good or not. In the coming weeks we shall witness recounts, rethinking, and changing of policy. I intend to write more when all matters are settled, but I can assure you now that the next two years are to be interesting.
WMDs?
Of all places.. from the
New York Times!?
I'm not going to go saying told you so. I don't even know if that really means this. But certainly the fact that Iraq had sensitive information on building weapons, that we gladly shared with the world for a couple of months, must mean something. Especially since a lot of this was Pre-Gulf War stuff. We don't know if they could have actually sealed the deal and done something with it, but it certainly confirms a lot of suspicions.
Wouldn't it be ironic if North Korea and Iran figured out how to go nuclear because of this stuff?
The Future Implications of the Election
The election is to be held this Tuesday. This very election is essential to the very definition of what it is to be an American. If the Democrats win we shall see the end of an era, and the construction of an entirely new foreign policy. If the Republicans win we shall see more of the same current policies.
My personal prediction is this: based on the Washington Post, Real Clear Politics, and several other sources, I believe that the Republicans will hold the Senate by a small majority. The Republicans will lose the House.
Some predict the Democrats to win both houses, which would be a blessing and a curse. Taking this hypothetical position, the Democrats would use the congressional powers of subpoena and oversight to investigate the Bush administration and their methods. They would not under any circumstances try and impeach the president - this would only polarize the Republican base and kill any chances of Democratic election in the future decade or two...and the Democrats know this. So if they take the majority, they will be a thorn in Bush's side.
The upside to a Democratic majority in both houses is that the Republicans will win the presidency in 2008. The Democratic agenda in the next two years would be to undermine the Bush administration and not actually do anything good for the nation as a whole, and that will hurt them come the next presidential campaigns.
Alternatively, if the Republicans hold the majority in both Houses (somewhat unlikely at this point) it is more likely for a Democratic backlash in the presidency in 2008. So the short term gains would be good, while the long term would hurt us as a party.
The most likely outcome is a Democratic small majority in the House and a small Republican majority in the Senate. This will clog the government for the next two years, and I doubt much of anything will get done. Bush would probably be forced to come up with a more moderate position in Iraq and on other issues and for this outcome I have no predictions for the presidency in 2008.
So ironically I believe it would be most beneficial to the Republicans if the Democrats win right now. It really hurts me to state this, because I never ever wish Democrats a victory. The Democratic position will only result in us paying more taxes, unnecessary gun-control laws, and a vulnerable foreign policy.
I do not doubt a surprise Republican victory, however. I am involved in several grassroots GOTV (Get out the vote) movements, and the Republican Party has 4x more funds than the Democratic party and plans a 72 hour media blitz, as well as phone calling and door knocking (and I myself will participate in this Republican 'ground army' movement in hopes of a victory.)
In the end though, everybody must vote. I predict a higher showing than the average midterm election because this very election is so polarized. But certainly less than 50% of the electorate will turn out, and that is a travesty. I urge you all to go out and vote Republican, because not only does the future of the nation depend on it, but so does our safety and rights as citizens.
John Kerry
Everyone knew that this election was as referendum on the Republicans. They have squandered their political capital, done some shameful things, and have become lazy, complacent, and corrupt leaders. For the Democrats to pick up some seats in both houses, probably even enough for a majority, really all they had to do was just stay quiet. Maybe a few new policy initiatives, etc., but the Republicans were really the ones who had to shoulder the burden of proof as to why they should remain in Congressional Power. Luckily, over the past couple of weeks, the Democrats have done so many idiotic things that have ended up hurting their chances and shifted some of the burden on them.
And then John Kerry spoke yesterday. This guy
is the democratic party. He was their presidential candidate! Now everyone knows where he stands. What an ass.
He could just do some damage control, even if it was just a dumb joke, and simply apologize. But he doesn't seem to want to do that for some reason.
At least we know
what our troops think.